Taiwan Continues Toward US-Engineered “Ukraine-ization”

May 27, 2024 (NEO - Brian Berletic) - The Chinese Island province of Taiwan continues to be targeted by the US and its political proxies through efforts to further consolidate political control over it and transform it into a geopolitical “battering ram” against the rest of China.

Considering the catastrophic consequences the Eastern European nation of Ukraine is suffering from a similar US-engineered strategy, understanding what Washington is doing to Taiwan and why there is essential in exposing and possibly avoiding similar consequences of unfolding in the Asia-Pacific region.

New “President,” Same Policy of Separatism 

The US-backed Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) Lai Ching-te took office as the local administration’s “president,” doubling down on a policy of integrating Taiwan further with the United States which includes military, political, and economic subordination.

Lai Ching-te’s predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen oversaw the expansion of a US troop presence, which according to the Wall Street Journal, includes outer islands claimed by the Taipei-based administration, as well as growing tensions with the rest of China. Taiwan’s local economy has suffered consistently as the island’s administration attempts to reduce its “dependency” on the rest of China, which represents the largest market (nearly half) for all exports from local industries.

Taiwan is Not a Country

The Guardian in its article, “China warns of reprisals against Taiwan after president’s inauguration speech,” attempts to portray China as bullying a “sovereign” Taiwan.

The article claims:

Beijing has warned of undefined reprisals against Taiwan after the inauguration speech of new president Lai Ching-te in which he maintained his government’s position on sovereignty, and did not concede to Beijing’s claim that Taiwan is a province of China.

However, the fact that Taiwan is a province of China is not merely “Beijing’s claim.” It is recognized as such by the United Nations, the “One China” policy of nations around the globe, including the United States and most European states, as well as the constitution of the Taiwan-based “Republic of China” itself.

The Grim Prospects of US Proxies: Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan

October 23, 2023 (NEO - Brian Berletic) - As Russia’s special military operation (SMO) approaches two years of intense fighting, having parried Ukraine’s “spring counteroffensive” and with the initiative shifting to Russian forces, Western capitals are now admitting they are reaching the limits to remaining support for Kiev.

During the Ukrainian offensive alone, the Western media has admitted Ukrainian forces have suffered catastrophic losses in both manpower and material. The Ukrainian economy has all but been replaced by heavy subsidies from the United States, Europe, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Ukrainian infrastructure including its power grid and ports have suffered severe damage the collective West is unable to repair in a timely manner.

Ukraine’s territory has shrunk. Four oblasts, Lugansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhye, and Kherson are now considered by Moscow as part of the Russian Federation. Crimea had already joined the Russian Federation following a referendum conducted in 2014 after the US-backed overthrow of the elected Ukrainian government.

In fact, from 2014 onward, Ukraine’s sovereignty had been stripped away, with the resulting client regime installed into power by the US answering to Washington at the expense of Ukraine’s best interests. To say Ukraine’s status as a viable nation state hangs in the balance because of this arrangement would not be an understatement.

Ukraine, as a US proxy, has suffered irreversible losses economically, politically, socially, and militarily. In a wider sense, Europe is also politically captured, led by the European Union bureaucracy who, like the Ukrainian government, serves Washington’s interests entirely at the expense of Europe’s collective interests.

Germany stands out as a particularly poignant example, having ignored the destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines, imposing sanctions on Russia to restrict any remaining hydrocarbons required by Germany’s industry and public, beginning a process of recession and deindustrialization.

Europe’s wider economy is suffering from similar setbacks, setbacks that cannot be offset by alternatives such as US liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) moved by ship across the Atlantic Ocean which will always be more expensive than Russian hydrocarbons piped in directly to Europe.

US Arms Package to Taiwan Heralds “Ukraine Part 2”

August 12, 2023 (Brian Berletic - New Eastern Outlook) - The United States has announced a new weapons package for Taiwan worth up to 345 million USD. Reuters, in an article covering the package, would suggest it was aimed at providing Taiwan with “security assistance.”

In reality, the transfer of weapons from the US to Taiwan is a violation of Chinese sovereignty under international law, which recognizes Taiwan as an island province of China.

The US State Department on its own official website admits, “the United States does not have diplomatic relations with Taiwan,” and that, “we do not support Taiwan independence.” Yet, the continued support of political parties on Taiwan pursuing independence and the shipment of US weapons to Taiwan to underwrite such aspirations constitutes a blatant violation of Washington’s own agreements with Beijing under the “One China” policy.

Washington’s actions in contravention of both international law and its own agreements with Beijing constitute a clear provocation against China and serve as the central driving factor behind Chinese military expansion, especially in and around the Taiwan Strait.

By violating China’s sovereignty by shipping arms to separatist elements on Taiwan, the United States is neither providing for Taiwan’s security nor underwriting regional stability as Washington often claims its presence in the region, thousands of miles from its own shores, is meant to achieve.

A factor, further undermining Washington’s claims of providing for Taiwan’s “security” through such arms transfers, is the very nature of these packages.

Reuters reports that:

In recent weeks, four sources told Reuters the package was expected to include four unarmed MQ-9A reconnaissance drones, but noted their inclusion could fall through as officials work through details on removing some of the advanced equipment from the drones that only the U.S. Air Force is allowed access to.

Even if the MQ-9A reconnaissance drones, also known as Reapers, included the most advanced technology used by the US Air Force, their utility in providing for Taiwan’s “security,” would be questionable at best. That the US is stripping them of features maximizing their capabilities further demonstrates the lack of sincerity behind US intentions to “secure” Taiwan through such arms shipments.

Western drone technology including US Reaper drones as well as Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones have proven to be ineffective in combat roles against peer or near-peer competitors, namely Russia, as seen during the fighting in Ukraine and Syria.

Washington’s Shifting Taiwan Policy Aims for an Asian “Ukraine”

June 3, 2022 (Brian Berletic - New Eastern Outlook) - The United States is openly talking about its arming of Taiwan no longer in general terms of ensuring “sufficient self-defense,” but rather specifically to “win against China,” thus confirming Beijing’s longstanding claims that Washington has been provoking conflict in what is China’s internal political affairs recognized as such by even the US and its official recognition of the One China Policy.

The New York Times in a May 7, 2022 article titled, “US Presses Taiwan to Buy Weapons More Suited to Win Against China,” would claim:

The Biden administration is quietly pressing the Taiwanese government to order American-made weapons that would help its small military repel a seaborne invasion by China rather than weapons designed for conventional set-piece warfare, current and former US and Taiwanese officials say.

The article also claims:

The US campaign to shape Taiwan’s defenses has grown in urgency since the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine ordered in late February by President Vladimir V. Putin. The war has convinced Washington and Taipei that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan in the coming years is now a potential danger — and that a smaller military with the right weapons that has adopted a strategy of asymmetric warfare, in which it focuses on mobility and precision attacks, can beat back a larger foe. 

In reality, after 8 years of intense training of over 23,000 Ukrainian forces and the transfer of billions of dollars worth of arms, Ukraine is no more able to repel Russian military operations amid the current conflict there than Taiwan will be able to do in any future conflict with the mainland even with Washington’s “re-examination” of Taiwan’s military capabilities and the adjustment of arms shipped to the breakaway island province.

Washington Preps Taiwan to be Asia's "Ukraine"

May 14, 2022 (The New Atlas) - Washington's shifting policy toward Taiwan seeks to transform the breakaway province into the next "Ukraine" in a proxy war between the US and China. 

1. Taiwan is to China as Ukraine is to Russia, in other words the US seeks to wage a proxy conflict through the breakaway island province in the same way the US is waging war with Russia through Ukrainian forces; 

2. Just as US training and arms sales to Ukraine has done absolutely nothing to “repel” Russia, US training and arms to Taiwan will not only not “repel” any military operation to reintegrate Taiwan fully, it will most likely only accelerate provocations toward such a military operation; Washington’s goal in both Ukraine and Taiwan is not to preserve the regimes administering either territory, but to create and use conflicts involving both territories as justification for isolating Russia and China; 

3. The Western arms industry obviously is benefiting to the tune of billions regarding arms sales to not only to Ukraine and Taiwan, but also to nations as part of “preparing” for wider conflict between Europe and Russia as well as Indo-Pacific nations and China; 

4. In both cases it is clear that the US is not underwriting security for either Ukraine or Taiwan as well as the regions both territories reside in, and instead, is the greatest threat to both regions and wider global peace, stability, and prosperity.

As in Ukraine, so Too in Taiwan

April 4, 2022 (Brian Berletic - NEO) - Just as the the United States and its allies created an existential threat to Russia through the transformation of Ukraine into a highly militarized proxy of Western military power – so too is such a threat being deliberately and systematically created on the island of Taiwan vis-a-vis Beijing.

From 2014 onward, the United State had installed into power regimes in both Ukraine and Taiwan disrupting the status quo both territories had with Russia and China respectively.

While much attention in 2014 was focused on Nazi militants seizing power in Kiev, the US-sponsored “Sunflower movement” likewise paved the way for a US-backed political order to take power in Teipei.

Since then, the US has poured additional billions of dollars into interfering and overwriting the political structures of both Ukraine and Taiwan as well as pouring in billions in weapons. In addition to this, both Ukraine and Taiwan have hosted US forces to train the military in both territories.

US-Taiwan: West’s Last Foothold in China

June 30, 2021 (Brian Berletic - NEO) - In Washington’s ongoing and ever-growing confrontation with China, it continues to place pressure on Beijing over Taiwan. 

However, as China continues along a path soon to exceed the US economically, militarily, and technologically, Taiwan’s reintegration as part of a single China is all but inevitable. Recently introduced legislation attempting to reinforce US influence over the island territory is - in the short-term - only going to ratchet up tensions further between Beijing and Washington.

While US moves are sold as “supporting Taiwan,” in reality Taiwan stands most to lose from these resulting tensions.  

In the long-term, it will likely prove a poor investment for Washington regarding its Indo-Pacific strategy. 

US Investing in a Problematic Relationship with Taiwan 

While many assume Taiwan is a country and that it has close ties with the United States, in reality Taiwan is not a country. Under the universally recognized “One China Policy” Taiwan is considered part of China with one single government representing “One China.” Even the US, officially, recognizes the “One China Policy.” For example, the US does not have an official embassy in Taiwan.

In practice, however, the US uses Taiwan as a foothold of Western influence within Chinese territory, much the way it and its European allies used Hong Kong until very recently. 

The US carries out highly provocative arms shipments to the authorities in Taiwan and instead of an official embassy, conducts diplomatic affairs out of what it calls the “American Institute in Taiwan.”

The US government has also established a presence for other arms of US “soft-power” including the so-called “Taiwan Foundation for Democracy,”  a franchise of the US government’s National Endowment for Democracy. Through this Taiwan-based institution, the US is able to exercise political control over both Taiwan and opposition groups throughout the region who all share an uncoincidental animosity toward Beijing. 

More recently, the US has proposed a series of bills to both pressure China overall, and specifically ratchet up tensions between the two global powers over the Taiwan issue. 

Reuters in its article, “Pushing against China, U.S. lawmakers plan pro-Taiwan bill,” would claim: 

Democratic and Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives will introduce legislation this week seeking to boost U.S. support for Taiwan, part of an effort in Congress to take a hard line in dealings with China.  

Called the “Taiwan Peace and Stability Act,” it aims to further deepen this “unofficial” relationship between Taiwan and Washington. While in official statements the US continues to recognize the “One China Policy,” unofficially this act and others like it are aimed at encouraging Taiwan’s independence movement and the souring of economic ties between Taiwan and the mainland. 

US-Taiwan Strategy Fundamentally Flawed

Reuters also noted the recently introduced EAGLE Act, or the “Ensuring American Global Leadership and Engagement Act.” 

While the topic of “ensuring American global leadership” is surrounded with discussion and debate over how to achieve it, the question of whether or not the US should “lead” the world remains unaddressed by policymakers in Washington.

Taiwan: A US Foothold Before a Chinese Tidal Wave

November 27, 2020 (Tony Cartalucci - NEO) - Taiwan has found itself increasingly in the middle of the growing power struggle between a waning US and a rising China. 

Taiwan is recognized by both the UN and the vast majority of the world's nations including (officially) the United States under the One China policy - but Taiwan's pro-independence circles have nonetheless enjoyed large amounts of financial and political support from Washington and has been a point of contention in the region and between Beijing and Washington for decades. 

The most recent example of this - reported by the Taipei Times in their article, "Two Washington-based pro-democracy NGOs to establish offices in Taipei," - was the increased footprint of Washington's notorious regime change front - the National Endowment for Democracy. 

The article would claim (emphasis added): 

Two Washington-based non-governmental organizations (NGOs), the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs (NDI) and the International Republican Institute (IRI), are to establish offices in Taiwan after they were sanctioned by Beijing last year.

The two institutes, along with the US National Endowment for Democracy (NED), Freedom House and Human Rights Watch were sanctioned last year after speaking in support of Hong Kong democracy activists and as well as being part of China’s tit-for-tat reaction against US President Donald Trump signing the US’ Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act. 

Of course the US NED was not simply "speaking in support" of Hong Kong opposition groups - but was a primary conduit through which US government funding passed to these opposition groups. 

Making the purpose behind the US NED's expansion in Taiwan much clearer was IRI president Daniel Twining's comments claiming (emphasis added): 

From our Taipei base, we will work with our partners to highlight Taiwan’s hard-won democratic lessons, strengthen networks of Asia’s democratic actors and build resilience against malign authoritarian influence in the region... As the CCP [Chinese Communist Party] becomes more aggressive in violating the global rules-based order, now is the time for all democracies ... to invest in strengthening ties with Taiwan.

In other words, the US NED's move in Taiwan is meant to contribute to Washington's wider campaign of encircling and containing not only China but to fuel US-funded unrest targeting China's closest regional allies. 

Trump's Taiwan Phone Call Gaff No "Accident"

January 6, 2017 (Joseph Thomas - NEO) - President-elect Donald Trump's "accidental" phone conversation with Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen was neither a gaff nor a decision Trump and his advisers unilaterally made.

It is merely the latest evolution of US foreign policy in Asia Pacific amid the collapsing "Pivot to Asia" policy pursued under the previous administration of President Barack Obama.

Looking from an even wider perspective, both Trump and Obama's policies are merely the latest iterations of US policy over the last century aimed at encircling, containing and dominating not only China's rise upon the international stage, but in achieving, maintaining and even expanding American primacy over Asia.

The Washington Post in an op-ed titled, "Trump's Taiwan call wasn't a mistake. It was brilliant," would admit:

The phone call with President Tsai Ing-wen was reportedly carefully planned, and Trump was fully briefed before the call, according to The Washington Post. It's not that Trump was unfamiliar with the "Three Communiques" or unaware of the fiction that there is "One China." Trump knew precisely what he was doing in taking the call. He was serving notice on Beijing that it is dealing with a different kind of president — an outsider who will not be encumbered by the same Lilliputian diplomatic threads that tied down previous administrations. The message, as John Bolton correctly put it, was that "the president of the United States [will] talk to whomever he wants if he thinks it's in the interest of the United States, and nobody in Beijing gets to dictate who we talk to."

Use of the term "brilliant" here is, however, inappropriate.

US policy in Asia Pacific is predicated on decades of Washington presumptions that it, not any actual nation residing in Asia Pacific, should take and hold what US policymakers themselves refer to as "primacy" over the region. However, gradually over time, China as well as many nations described as "allies" of the United States, have incrementally moved out from under the long shadow cast from North America across the Pacific.