A New Space Race Above Earth May Determine Who Prevails Upon It

December 24, 2025 (NEO - Brian Berletic) - In early December 2025, private Chinese aerospace company, LandSpace, test-launched its Zhuque-3 rocket. The rocket is designed to place payloads into Earth orbit while recovering its first stage booster, much like SpaceX’s Falcon 9 launch system and now Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket. 

The launch was a partial success. The second stage successfully reached orbit while the first stage struck the landing pad hundreds of miles downrange destroying it. Despite an obvious anomaly preventing a successful landing - industry analysts concluded the attempted landing came spectacularly close for a first attempt. 

It took Falcon 9 several attempts before successfully landing its first stage booster, and more recently, US-based aerospace company Blue Origin 2 attempts to successfully land New Glenn’s first stage.

Blue Origin is only the second company to do so after US-based SpaceX which - for years now - has routinely launched payloads to orbit with its Falcon 9 launch vehicle while recovering and reusing Falcon’s first stage boosters.

The Reusable Rocket Revolution

SpaceX has refined this process of launching and recovering first stage boosters to the extent of launching, landing, recovering, and turning around boosters for their next launch within 30 days. 

The rapid reusability of SpaceX’ Falcon 9 has already revolutionized access to Earth orbit - drastically reducing costs while vastly expanding the number of launches possible per year. Blue Origin, should it successfully repeat New Glenn’s recent success while scaling up production and its launch cadence, would expand US access to orbit even further. 

Rapid reusability allows for the deployment of vast constellations of satellites over vastly shorter periods of time. SpaceX’ Starlink constellation, a low earth orbit network of 8,000+ communication satellites improves global coverage and significantly reduces signal latency over older, less numerous existing satellite communication networks located in higher, geostationary orbits.

Such constellations lend significant advantages to the nations who deploy and have access to them. 

As demonstrated in Ukraine, networks like SpaceX’s Starlink don’t just improve civilian satellite communication, but also enhance military communication as well as providing links to long-range drones (especially naval drones) line-of-sight radio signals cannot match. 

SpaceX has provided a significant advantage to the US commercially and militarily - an advantage the US seeks to fully exploit, and do so far beyond Starlink. 

For example, the US National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) has enlisted SpaceX and its Starlink platform to develop what is calls, "Starshield," essentially a military version of Starlink, merging its communication capabilities together with target tracking, optical and signal surveillance, as well as early missile warning capabilities. 

Between being publicly announced in 2022 to present day, nearly 200 Starshield satellites have been placed into orbit - an achievement that would have been impossible without SpaceX and its fleet of reusable launch systems - and an achievement other nations like Russia and China cannot currently match. 

Russia, China Playing Catch Up 

While nations like Russia and China have their own constellations of civilian and military satellites, neither have constellations as large as the US primarily because of limitations on how quickly launches can be conducted to place them into orbit. 

Throughout 2025, for example, the US conducted (approximately) 170 launches versus China’s 78, and Russia’s 15. 

In previous years, China had actually overtaken the US in annual launches. However, with SpaceX’s Falcon 9 launch system, this balance has been decisively tilted back in America’s favor.   

Space-Based Warfare: America’s Dominance Challenged

July 23, 2024 (NEO - Brian Berletic) - The Battlefield Above

The United States had throughout the Cold War and within the first decade of the 21st century established dominance in terms of space-based military capabilities, including satellite navigation through its Global Positioning System (GPS) and a wide array of reconnaissance and communications satellites. These enabled US forces to access targeting data and coordinate their forces anywhere on Earth. 

Satellite navigation has resulted in an array of GPS-guided munitions including the 155mm Excalibur artillery shell, the Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) rocket fired by the HIMARS and M270 platforms, and the Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) dropped via US warplanes.

Longer-range precision guided weapons using both GPS and a process called Digital Scene Matching Area Correlator (DSMAC) utilize images provided by reconnaissance satellites to find targets, obtain specific coordinates, and to guide the munitions themselves.

Such weapons were used in various US wars from the 1990s onward to great effect.

While the Soviet Union created its own satellite navigation system, Global Navigation Satellite System (GLONASS) which the Russian Federation still employs, the use of this system for guiding weapons was not widespread until relatively recently. Large-scale use has only been observed in Syria from 2015 onward, and most recently in the Special Military Operation (SMO).

Soviet and Russian reconnaissance satellites, based on publicly available information, have been employed in far fewer numbers than their American counterparts. And while both the US and Russia have communication satellites, the US is the only nation with a low-earth orbit (LEO) internet constellation, Starlink, consisting of over 6,000 satellites.

Starlink provides low-latency internet connections anywhere on Earth. For military forces using Starlink, it not only enables troops to communicate with each other, but also to guide remote-control platforms like aerial and maritime drones far beyond what traditional transmitted radio signals could achieve. Such drones would only be limited in range by their fuel or electric charge as long as a connection with Starlink was maintained.

While this has provided the US and its allies with advantages even on today’s battlefield, these advantages have been countered, and similar capabilities are being developed by not only Russia, but also China.

Countermeasures 

Such US weapons had until recently defined modern combat, leading many Western analysts into believing the US and its allies enjoyed unparalleled advantages on the battlefield. While the Soviet Union and initially the Russian Federation did not prioritize the production of precision guided weapons using space-based capabilities, both recognized the danger of US-NATO weapons using these capabilities and invested heavily in countermeasures.

This has resulted in the creation of Russia’s modern air and missile defense systems as well as a variety of electronic warfare capabilities, both of which are considered some of the best in the world.

China’s Space Program Makes its Mark

June 19, 2021 (Gunnar Ulson - NEO) - China’s growing technological prowess is on clear demonstration not only across telecommunication markets around the globe, but high up above it, in space. 

China’s space program overseen by the China National Space Administration (CNSA) has this year made several landmark accomplishments. 

It began the construction of its own space station. Called Tiangong, the first of several modules (Tianhe) was launched in April with a successful supply mission launched and then docked to it the following month. 

In the coming months, crewed flights and additional supply missions to the Tianhe module will be launched with additional modules to enlarge the station following next year. 

China is the third nation to place in orbit its own space station, following Russia and the United States. 

Tiangong joins in orbit the International Space Station (ISS), a joint project between the US, Russia, the European Space Agency (ESA) and Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). While the ISS hosts visitors from nations all around the globe, the US has specifically banned certain nations including China from sending participants. 

Increased tensions between the US and Russia has put in question not only the future of the ISS itself but future cooperation between these two established space powers in general, with the latter of the two opting for greater cooperation with China regarding both Tiangong as well as planned projects around and on the Moon. 

Also in May 2021, China marked the successful landing of its Zurong rover on the surface of Mars. Part of the Tianwen-1 interplanetary mission launched in 2020, China has become only the second nation ever to successfully land and operate a rover on the surface of Mars. 

This follows a similar and also successful Lunar program featuring CNSA’s Chang’e spacecraft series. Lunar orbiters, landers and rovers helped China hone the skills required for similar exploration on Mars. The program culminated in the Chang'e 5 mission to Earth’s moon in 2020 where CNSA landed, collected samples from the Moon’s surface and returned them to Earth. 

Russia and China Have Big Plans in Space

April 30, 2021 (Gunnar Ulson - NEO) - The trend of shifting away from the Washington-led unipolar "international order" toward multipolarism is not just unfolding here on Earth but far above it in orbit and even beyond. 

Washington's continued campaign of belligerence toward Moscow has even complicated one of the few fields of constructive cooperation between the two nations, cooperation in space. 

This includes the 22 year old International Space Station (ISS) which is a combination of Russian, American, European and Japanese modules and host astronauts from nations around the world. 

However, even this impressive achievement, both technical and in the realm of cooperation, is tainted by politics. The ISS excludes several nations from cooperation including China, an increasingly important ally of Russia (and many other nations around the globe). 

The US more recently targeted its cooperation with Russia in particular by attempting to ban the sale of Russian rocket engines to US-based aerospace company, United Launch Alliance. While "security" concerns were cited, the ban was motivated in reality by the crisis in Ukraine and Washington's frustration over the rejoining of Crimea with the Russian Federation in 2014. 

While the ban was partially lifted due to ULA's dependence on Russian rocket technology, efforts have continued to sever cooperation between the US and Russia. 

The Lunar Gateway project was deemed "too US-centric" for major participation by Russia, SpaceNews would report in their article, "Russia skeptical about participating in lunar Gateway." The minimizing of Russia's role in projects up in space appears to be a continuation of Washington's policies to minimize and isolate Russia's influence back on Earth. 

And just as on Earth where Russia finds itself turning toward other partners to continue moving forward, it is seeking out partners up in space to continue advancing there as well. 

US-Russian Cooperation in Space Pokes Holes in Conflicts on Earth

April 3, 2021 (Gunnar Ulson - NEO) - A last minute request from NASA to fly an American astronaut on Russia's Soyuz rocket opens up a wide array of interesting points. 

Space.com in an article titled, "Here's how NASA just booked a last-minute trip to space on a Russian Soyuz," would note: 

"The crew composition change came as a result of an earnest request from the U.S. side," Roscosmos personnel wrote in Tuesday's statement. "NASA voiced its request only in the end of 2020, meaning the Russian side had to change the already confirmed and approved launch program. Roscosmos has taken this decision confirming its adherence to the joint agreements and the spirit of joint usage of the International Space Station."

NASA's last-minute booking of a flight on Russia's Soyuz rocket for US astronaut Mark Vande Hei is a testament to Russian launch capabilities and the dependability and flexibility of the Soyuz launch system.

It is also a testament to US-Russian cooperation and what is possible when both nations work together. 

Russia Transported US Astronauts for Years 

For nearly a decade Russia had flown all US astronauts to the International Space Station (ISS) after the 2011 retirement of the US space shuttle fleet. US dependence on Russian crew-launch capabilities ended when US-based aerospace company SpaceX made operational its Crew Dragon spacecraft. 

Crew Dragon flew a test crew and a crew of 4 to the ISS last year on two separate missions. 

Despite NASA's new US-based crew-launch option, the recent booking of a Soyuz for one of its astronauts demonstrates why cooperation is still important. 

Crew Dragon will of course continue sending astronauts to the ISS, and in the future will increase its flight cadence and its flexibility, but having a reliable backup is essential to maintaining and supporting crews in orbit. 

Nations Race Toward Reusable Rockets

March 12, 2021 (Gunnar Ulson - NEO) - The original space race was a bipolar affair with mostly political implications for the United States and the Soviet Union. Out of that space race, commercial and military capabilities began to grow in the realm of communication satellites, collecting intelligence, and global navigation. 

We are now looking at an emerging new space race, one significantly different than the competition of last century. 

Now, it is no longer just the US and Russia, it is also China, India, Japan, Europe, as well as more recent newcomers like Iran. There are also a large and growing number of private companies not only involved in supporting state space programs, but possessing their own space launch capabilities. 

These companies include SpaceX in the United States, Rocket Lab (based in the US with a New Zealand subsidiary), but also private companies in China like iSpace and Galactic Energy. All of these companies have successfully placed payloads into orbit, with SpaceX also capable of resupplying the International Space Station (ISS) and also launching crewed missions with its Falcon 9 rocket and its Dragon 2 spacecraft.   

The Importance of Reusability and Access to Space 

These newer space companies, free of legacy hardware and starting from a clean slate, have looked seriously into varying degrees of reusability. 

The Problem with the US Space Force

February 11, 2021 (Gunnar Ulson - NEO) - The US Space Force (USSF) is the newest branch of the US Armed Forces. Its personnel are referred to officially as "Guardians" versus "soldiers," "sailors," "airmen," and "Marines" of other branches. 

Regarding the USSF's stated mission, its official website claims: 

The USSF is a military service that organizes, trains, and equips space forces in order to protect U.S. and allied interests in space and to provide space capabilities to the joint force. USSF responsibilities include developing Guardians, acquiring military space systems, maturing the military doctrine for space power, and organizing space forces to present to our Combatant Commands.

Organized into various "Deltas," the USSF is tasked with developing space doctrine, monitoring the space domain, overseeing space electronic warfare, manning missile warning systems, overseeing cyberspace operations, controlling intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance and conducting orbital warfare 

The USSF's "Delta 8" now operates the United States' Global Positioning System (GPS) as part of carrying out satellite communication and navigation warfare. 

The concept of having a dedicated branch of the US Armed Forces monitoring the space domain for threats and developing capabilities to defend against those threats makes perfect sense, particularly at a time when space is becoming increasingly accessible and space-based capabilities for civil, economic and military applications become increasingly central to modern daily life.

Russia and China have their own services within their respective armed forces to do precisely this as well, with Russia having established the Russian Space Forces and China having created the People's Liberation Army Strategic Support Force. 

The real problem with the US Space Force is not the concept behind its face-value creation or its stated mission, but with the inevitable abuse of this new branch of military service by the special interests that drive US foreign policy. 

Protecting America or Preventing Others from Protecting Themselves From America? 

When the US Space Force talks about protecting its GPS capabilities from attack, it is not talking about a Russian or Chinese attack on GPS capabilities over the United States to disrupt applications essential for daily life in America. 

It is actually talking about the disruption of GPS capabilities overseas in theaters of war the US is illegally involved in. 

The New Space Race

November 14, 2020 (Gunnar Ulson - NEO) - We might not give it much thought, but the ability to place satellites into space has changed the way we live our lives in so many ways. From navigating our way by car, to ordering delivery services online, to checking the weather, all of this is made possible by human access to space. 

Until relatively recently, access to space has been the realm of only a handful of governments worldwide, namely the US, Russia, China, the European Union, Japan and India. 

But with the arrival of American-based aerospace company SpaceX, this has changed. 

Not only has SpaceX proven it was possible for private companies to enter into this once exclusive club, SpaceX has developed a business model and technology that is dropping the cost for accessing space through the floor. 

SpaceX has begun what is essentially a new space race. It is one where governments and companies around the globe now rush to utilize modern technology to cash in the growing demand lowering costs are driving. 

American Aerospace

SpaceX has run circles around traditional US aerospace contractors like Boeing, Lockheed and their combined United Launch Alliance (ULA). 

SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket features a reusable first stage that can be used up to 10 times with some versions already having flown 6 missions. This reusability has made SpaceX highly competitive against traditional contractors who essentially throw out their entire launch system for each and every flight. 

SpaceX's cost effective services and the company's incredible pace of innovation has spurred US aerospace in ways ULA could never have done. In fact, SpaceX is being considered for US government projects through NASA once originally reserved only for America's older aerospace monopolies. 

While it seems clear that for companies like ULA to survive they will have to rethink the way they do business - there seems little signs that this is going to happen any time soon. However, abroad, many are already taking note and preparing to follow SpaceX's example. 

Russia 

Russia's state corporation for spaceflight, Roscosmos, has depended on its Soyuz launch system for decades. While the original design dates back to the 1950s it has undergone extensive upgrades over the years. It has reliably provided uninterrupted human spaceflight services to the International Space Station for 20 years, even transporting US astronauts for years after the space shuttle program was cancelled and before SpaceX's crewed Dragon capsule came into service just this year. 

However, like virtually all other launch vehicles, Soyuz is not reusable. In order to remain competitive, Roscosmos announced the development of the Amur launch system. Like SpaceX's Falcon 9, Amur will feature a reusable first stage that will return to Earth under the power of its own rockets, landing with deployable legs. The Amur rocket is expected to be operational by 2026 according to Space.com.