December 15, 2025 (NEO - Brian Berletic) - Major hostilities erupted once again early to mid-December in Southeast Asia along the borders of Thailand and Cambodia following a troubled “ceasefire” which included incidents and provocations for months since the last round of major fighting took place in July 2025.
Despite any resulting ceasefire, the fundamental issues driving the conflict remain entirely unresolved, primarily because these issues stem from foreign interests using regional conflict to complicate both Asia’s rise in general, and China’s rise specifically.
The Nature of the Fighting
Fighting erupted after Cambodian land mines and small arms fire left Thai troops injured and dead early December 8 leading to spiraling violence involving heavy artillery, warplanes, drones, and intense small arms fire at locations all along the Thai-Cambodian border.
Cambodia launched hundreds of BM-21 unguided multiple launch rocket system munitions into Thailand prompting the Thai military to respond with air and drone strikes targeting both the launchers themselves as well as local ammunition depots used for staging rockets. Positional fighting resulted in disputed territory changing hands day-to-day just as it had during the previous fighting in July.
Amid the fighting, footage and Thai military statements indicated Cambodia was also using Ukrainian-style FPV (first-person-view) drones - there were also intercepted communications featuring English-speaking drone operators.
This indicates that the US, either directly or through one of its many proxies, has aided Cambodia in a similar manner to its successful overthrow of the Syrian government late last year. It was admitted then that similar Ukraine-style FPV drones and Western operators aided militants in pushing back and eventually overrunning Russian and Iranian-backed Syrian forces.
Adding further to suspicions of a US role in the recent violence is Cambodia’s own vocal, repeated appeals for US involvement as a mediator, versus Thailand’s repeated refusal to accept directives delivered from Washington.
“Extending China”
The on-and-off border fighting disrupts peace and stability threatening the rapid rise of not only China, but the rest of Asia with it - including close Chinese partners like Thailand and obviously Cambodia itself.
The conflict represents part of a strategy already documented and being applied to Russia meant to encircle and contain it through economic pressure and the creation and expansion of multiple simultaneous conflicts along its periphery.
This strategy was laid out in detail in the 2019 RAND Corporation paper titled, “Extending Russia,” and included plans to provoke a deadly proxy war with Russia in Ukraine, to continue arming “Syrian rebels” who have since overthrown the Russian-backed government in Syria, for attempted regime change in Belarus, to exploit tensions in the South Caucasus, to reduce Russian influence in Central Asia, and to challenge Russia’s presence in Transnistria.
It should be mentioned that all of these options have either been implemented or are in the process of being implemented and that the US is pursuing an identical strategy in regards to China as well.
Earlier in December of this year, the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute hosted current US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine. In the talk he specifically mentioned the ongoing US strategy to maintain global primacy and to confront a rising China.
During the talk he explicitly stated:
“…so when we look at the rise of the Chinese military, what our goal in the joint force is to create multiple, simultaneous dilemmas for ALL of the adversaries around the world, so that they are very cautious and concerned about doing something that would bring any sense of threat to the American people. “
While it could be argued that General Caine meant ”dilemmas” created by US military capabilities amid a hypothetical conflict with China, throughout the talk he repeatedly linked the concept of creating “dilemmas” to all domains of US geopolitical power, including the ongoing AI (artificial intelligence) race - well outside any ongoing US-China conflict - just as the US has done to Russia.
In many ways the US is already pursuing an “extending China” policy as laid out in the RAND paper against Russia, but targeting China along its periphery.
The US already backs armed conflict to Thailand’s west in Myanmar where it supports militants attacking Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) infrastructure carrying hydrocarbons from Myanmar’s coast to China’s southern border. Composed of pipelines, the infrastructure allows China to bypass the Strait of Malacca the US has planned to blockade in the event of an open US-China conflict, according to US policy papers.
The same policy papers even noted that in order for a maritime blockade of China to succeed, China’s BRI infrastructure would need to be severed as well. One paper even proposed bombing it amid any US-Chinese conflict, but it is clear the US has already begun attacking Chinese BRI infrastructure by proxy long before any such conflict erupts.
Similar US-backed attacks are taking place across Pakistan targeting Chinese BRI infrastructure there.
As part of this strategy of “extending China,” the US has stationed tens of thousands of US troops across South Korea, Japan, and increasingly the Philippines. It also maintains hundreds of US troops on the Chinese island province of Taiwan itself. In addition to hosting US troops, these nations have been encouraged by Washington to adopt increasingly hostile postures toward Beijing despite the economic damage caused in the process.
The US military operates throughout the South China Sea supposedly to preserve “freedom of navigation” against what it depicts as a threat from China when, in reality, US government-funded think tanks admit the majority of navigation through these waters is coming from and going to China itself. This means the US seeks to threaten and eventually disrupt navigation through the South China Sea - not protect it.
Just as the RAND paper sought to overthrow nations along Russia’s periphery, the US has, for years, attempted to overthrow and politically capture nations along China’s periphery through opposition groups funded and directed by US “soft power,” including the National Endowment for Democracy (NED). Most recently, the US successfully overthrew the government of Nepal, right on China’s border.
The US has also extensively targeted Southeast Asia with political interference, specifically to remove China-friendly governments and replace them with US client regimes - including in Thailand.
Targeting Thailand to Extend China
The US since 2001 has sought to politically capture Thailand through US-backed billionaire Thaksin Shinawatra and his political allies. In recent years, the US has also begun backing Thai billionaire Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit and his various political parties.
Both billionaires represent eager servants of US interests. During Thaksin’s time in office from 2001-2006, he helped privatize Thai state-owned enterprises before selling them off to US investors, sent Thai troops to participate in the US occupation of Iraq, and hosted secret CIA detention camps. While Thaksin never publicly opposed Thai relations with Beijing, he clearly had/has a preference for Washington.
Thanathorn, however, is a vocal opponent of closer cooperation with China. His various political parties have consistently opposed arms purchases of any kind from China, opting for US-European arms deals instead. Thanathorn himself had previously called for the cancellation of the already-under-construction Thai-Chinese high-speed railway in favor of the non-existent “hyperloop” system.
During a public hyperloop presentation, Thanathorn would expose his underlying intentions, saying:
“I think over the past 5 years we have been giving too much importance in dealing with China. We want to reduce that and we want to rebalance our relationship to Europe, to Japan, to the US more.”
Over the past 20+ years, the US has helped organize violent “color revolutions” seeking to install Thaksin, Thanathorn, and their political allies into power. Former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, a close friend and associate of Thaksin, aided US political interference in Thailand by hosting Thai opposition groups and allowing Cambodia to serve as a base of operations for them.
Even amid fighting along the border, US-backed opposition parties have sought to rewrite the entire Thai constitution, specifically to make it easier for US-backed parties to take power and prevent Thai institutions, including both the courts and the Thai military, from removing them.
Among the “nongovernmental organizations” (NGOs) promoting a constitution rewrite is “iLaw.” Admittedly funded by the US government NED and George Soros’ Open Society, iLaw represents a vector of foreign influence targeting Thailand’s most sensitive internal political affairs on behalf of equally compromised US-backed political parties.
This foreign influence constitutes a danger lurking inside Thailand as dangerous as the foreign-influenced danger targeting Thailand’s border with Cambodia. Together, these “dilemmas” are being created specifically to undermine and eventually strip away one of the region’s closest partners to China.
Chinese-Thai Relations Are the Target
Despite enduring stereotypes regarding Thailand’s “pro-US” position and Cambodia being “pro-China,” a close look at current reality reveals a different story.
One of the most cited points in favor of this theory is Thailand’s status as a “major non-NATO ally” of the United States - a status granted to Thailand in 2003 when Thaksin Shinawatra was at the height of his power and in the process of delivering Thailand as a proxy to Washington, before a military coup ousted him in 2006.
Following Thailand’s military ousting Thaksin and his sister Yingluck Shinawatra from power in 2006 and 2014 respectively, Thailand has spent approximately two times more on weapons from China than Cambodia has, including larger quantities of weapons and more sophisticated weapons. This includes main battle tanks, armored personnel carriers, infantry fighting vehicles, air defense systems, jointly-developed long-range guided multiple launch rocket systems, drones, and even naval vessels.
China’s trade with Thailand is vastly greater than with Cambodia, as are its investments in infrastructure. In addition to the high-speed rail line, China has also invested in or has been contracted to build hospitals, government buildings, and airport terminals throughout Thailand. Chinese companies, especially from its auto industry, are investing in factories in Thailand - representing vastly more value than Chinese investments in neighboring Cambodia.
China represents both Thailand’s largest source of imports as well as its largest export market.
In addition to economic ties and the Thai military’s large and growing relationship with China, the revered Thai monarchy has also built a close relationship with Beijing. The current Thai king, King Rama 10, has even recently visited Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing - the first Thai king to do so. King Rama 10’s sister, Princess Maha Chakri Sirindhorn speaks Mandarin and has made repeated official trips to Beijing.
For this and many other reasons, the Thai military and monarchy have been targeted for years by US-funded opposition groups attempting to mute or remove entirely both as strong, independent Thai institutions.
Cambodia: A Weak Link
Cambodia, on the other hand, despite the vast majority of its military equipment being Chinese-made, and hosting Chinese investments in real estate and manufacturing, counts the United States as its largest export market while using the US dollar as a de facto currency within Cambodia itself.
In the past 2-3 years, Cambodia has also begun a pivot toward closer cooperation with the United States militarily since former PM Hun Sen’s son, Hun Manet - a US West Point graduate - took power. During this period, Cambodia has hosted US warships at ports near those recently refurbished by China (with plans to visit the refurbished ports in the near future), announced renewed joint military drills with the US, and has begun discussions of wider “defense cooperation.”
In other words, while China represents Cambodia’s primary source of military hardware and foreign investment, the US still maintains disproportionate leverage over Cambodia - first economically, and now politically.
Because exports make up the majority of Cambodia’s GDP, and the vast majority of Cambodian exports go to the US, with those exports being primarily textiles and garments produced in factories built by Chinese investors, the US can easily extort concessions from Cambodia’s government by threatening to impose bans on goods it can claim circumvent US trade controls on China itself.
It is easy to see how not only the Thai-Cambodian border conflict fits into an already ongoing US “extending China” policy, but also how the US convinced Cambodia to volunteer itself into becoming a Southeast Asian “Ukraine” to do so.
Regardless of any ceasefire following December’s hostilities, US intentions to use the Thai-Cambodian border conflict within its much wider “extending China” policy means the danger of instability will hang over the region well into the foreseeable future.
The only question now is whether both Thailand and China can maintain peace and stability in the region to maintain Asia’s continued rise, or US attempts to gnaw at a key Chinese partner - both along its borders and from within its own political system - can turn Asia into the same environment of conflict and chaos the US has turned the Middle East, Europe, and Africa into for so many years.
Brian Berletic is a Bangkok-based geopolitical researcher and writer.
